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Work
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What Is The Future Of Work?

Let me point out - again - that the answer to the question is useless - because the question is badly framed. I have written about this before here, here and here and a whole host of other places aswell.

The Conclusion

There is no future of work. There is only a future of income.

Fast forward to a LinkedIn graphic that was presented to me last week.

It appeared in Brett King's LinkedIn stream. Brett and I are connected on LinkedIn, and have a couple of very good mutual friends in common. Brett, like another 'futurist' Gerd Leonhard is doing a great job in 'getting the word out', but I worry that the word being got out is not just oversimplified but actually harmful because people are being lulled into a false sense of security.

This Is One Such Example

First, I assume that 'Aritificial' is a typo and not some new technological development ...

... but the lack of proofreading of a single sentence might be a clue to how substantial the thinking is that underpins the idea.

Important: Please do not take this post as my taking an anti position on Brett. I don’t know him, but do follow and pay attention. He is not wrong on a number of issues. Like these two ..

The Original Post on LinkedIn (sorry - I wanted to embed it here - but LinkedIn is the only site that seems to fail with a WordPress embeds) ... go figure.

The crux of my issue is the flip approach to what is happening in the world of business today.

I limited my response to a few lines ... hoping that a reader would be able to 'read between them', Brett read the lines, but not between them.

Brett duly responded ...

Readers of this blog will know that this is something I understand.

BUT

The point I was trying to make is not about the future of work - we know is being redefined through outsourcing, offshoring, automation, AI, the gig economy, zero hour contracts ... and it is clear those jobs aren't going to come back.

My point is (and always has been) more 'People Firsty' ... that is as all of this comes to be - how will people make income to live their lives in the future?

Example 1

In the comments in Brett's thread people referenced the four day week - and everyone is talking about how it is already happening. The assumption seems to be that a staff member will no longer work 5 days and instead work 4 days.

This is quite brilliant and lovely and utopian and - all those things we want to have in and around our lives and existence. Who doesn’t want to work less ...

If their salary is not affected.

But let's just take a couple of seconds to do a pretty shallow dive ... if people are working 4 days, not 5, then they are working 20% less. To let them work less and not pay them less is the equivalent of companies giving each of those people a 20% salary increase.

Are companies going to do that?

The answer is in plain sight because we have a stalking horse in the race. Thanks to COVID we have proof points all over the world that people don’t want to 'go back to the office' and in turn, some companies have responded with

That's ok - work wherever you want!

Spectacular - until you read the small print ...

This isn't the only article out there, do a search and you will find hundreds, if not thousands of articles debating the merits of paying your staff based on what locals earn.

Case in point - move 200 miles up the I80 from San Francisco to Reno, salaries are nothing like that of the Bay Area. On top of that since Reno is in Nevada - there is no state tax. In California - well like most places, it varies, but here is one slice ...

$115,648 – $590,7469.30%
Source : HR Block

- so moving your life 200 miles reduces your cost of living substantially just based on tax savings. But there's more ...

Beyond the tax break, the Reno cost of living index is just 116.2, compared to San Francisco's at a whopping 244 - and that does not include the tax break just described.

So if you can do your job remotely, why wouldn’t you want to move to a cheaper place - and collect the same income. (Putting the comparison of living in Reno versus San Francisco aside.)

It does seem to be a perfect idea - except your employer is not generally going to allow that - because they do - and will - pay you based on where you live - not where you work!

I get the argument, I really do - but that's my point. If companies aren't going to pay people for value delivered, but based on where they live, then why are they suddenly going to pay you a higher daily rate because you want to work less?

To me, the 4 day week is an experiment to cut salaries - legally. It won't happen suddenly - just over time. They might well leave your salary in place, but everyone's? ... and when you leave will they continue to pay your premium rate to the next person?

Example 2

As more and more people leave their cubes to follow their dreams and passions - which is what everyone is telling you to do - right? Follow your dreams - it will all work out.

What dream and passion are you going to follow?

Look around today and you will find little societal support for artists, musicians, writers, poets et al. Imagine if the number of such people suddenly doubled, grew fivefold or even tenfold as we all follow our dreams ... are all those people suddenly going to be earning a lot more? (it's a rhetorical question.)

We are also told that there is so much opportunity in the professions of care-giving, social services, teachers, hospital workers, elderly care. They are right. Lots of opportunities. They are all on the ‘hot professions’ list, but before you get too excited, go talk to the people who work in those areas now. Ask them why Teachers are resigning en masse? Why do nurses get trained and don’t go into health services?

There are countless examples of how society (that's you and me), value these professions. We don't.

Back to musicians - we pay Spotify 10 bucks a month to stream an 'all you can eat' flow of music to your ears. The artists are generally not well rewarded. But it's not as if Spotify aren't making good money. How else do they afford to $100 million to sign up a single podcast - or buy company after company as they seek to lock up the world of podcasting. (BTW - they are doing it because the more you listen to that - the less they have to pay out.)

To conclude, as wonderful as it is for all of us to follow our dreams and passions - so we can all live fulfilled lives - we also need to earn an income. And we are barely doing that today, so how is that going to get better?

I said something better change
I said something better change
I said something better change
I said something better change

The Stranglers

Or maybe we will all move into social services, hospitals, caring for the elderly - since they are all on the ‘hot professions’ list. That said, the last two years have clearly demonstrated that while ‘society’ might value the people in those roles, it is clear that the paymasters do not.

In short, as we replace jobs with automation - and people don’t have a way to replace that income, something is not adding up.

Bottom line - as organizations remove people from their vendor supply chain and automate sales to improve business efficiency, more and more people will be left out of the workforce - and no matter how many Norman Tebbits (Sorry old English reference), how about Kim Kardashian's words of 'motivation'.

I have a way of looking at the issue. I call it ...

The Business Equation

At the simplest level, the business equation recognizes that every commercial entity has an input - where it creates something using people, money and/or assets to create a product or service that is sold - the output. The 'black box' in the middle is the business. Your business. Any business.

To maximize shareholder value, the business seeks to reduce the cost of what it produces or increase the price of what it sells. Yes there all kinds of techniques that are used - but reduce it all down and you are left with

It is a simplification, but the logic holds.

This is an early simplification of the model. The whole enchilada will become a post unto itself.

It is also true that on the left-hand side of the equation the fixed costs of 'people' is really high - which is why over the years, companies have sought to cut those costs by 'getting people off the books'. That's where outsourcing and offshoring got their start. Automation through Robotics is now turning into AI and then at contractual levels, the gig economy / zero-hour contracts all play into the needs of corporations who keep on pushing the boundaries of 'just in time' 'people'.

And you thought the days of people being cogs in the corporate engine was a thing of the past!

Now imagine every company big and small working to remove people from the equation in this way. Where does it leave people? Every mini Business Equation on the left of that diagram is doing its bit to outsource, offshore, automate .... and where do people fit in that equation?

To quote my friend Geoffrey Moore ...

That's What I Think - What Do You Think?

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Value
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Sell your VALUE ... skills, degrees, time, knowledge, certifications - all of them are useless if you don’t improve the customers life - and you do that my giving them more time OR improving the quality of the time they have.

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Work
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Don’t Fear The Future Of Work

The Future of Work

The Massachusetts Institute of Technology is the source of this piece on The Future of Work. I don’t disagree with the headline, but the article itself falls short of providing solace. In fact it falls short of being an article - but that's another story.

An altogether disappointing piece that ends ...

“I really come away from this concerned about the direction [of work], but optimistic about our ability to change it."

David Autor, Co-chair, MIT Task Force on the Work of the Future and MIT Professor of Economics

On what grounds? Their was nothing of substance in the piece. Just opinion.

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Work
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Germany drafting law to give people the legal right to work from home.

Germany leading the way. Sad we need to have laws around this. Business so locked into BAU that they need to be told what to do?

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Work
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Character

Photo by Paolo Nicolello on Unsplash

I was really taken by these words that came in an email from one of my newsletter readers. Capturing it for posterity ... because it is important.

Character may be something you are born with and largely in place by age 5 but surely it is something that is developed and refined in many ways through a thousand experiences in both good and bad directions. Right?

Since a zillion years ago I have ALWAYS subscribed to "hire character, teach skills". It has never let me down and the boneheaded moves I have made here and there were when I deviated from this.

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Work
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How The Future Works – The Arrogance!

In fairness, the full title was

How The Future Works:
Why your ultimate job is to be HUMAN.

Well yes. Couldn't agree more ... but that opening line - that suggests that it is all pre destined. This ... is how .... it is ... going to work ... Surely the Future hasn't yet been decided?

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Work
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How Do We Find Dignity At Work?

Roy Bahat and Bryn Freedman

Let me know what you think in the comments.

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Newsletter Work
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Challenge of Work

Our sixth newsletter explores the value of a person to a corporation.

In understanding how organizations search for ‘talent’ these days, candidates know that their first two or three hurdles will have nothing to do with people and everything to do with machines and as a result valuable time is spent in tuning their resume and cover letter with SEO like terms, so that they bubble to the top.

Do you find that as sad, bad and depressing as I do?

  • It’s like outsourcing your customer support team to a call center, full of untrained people … oh wait!
  • I mean it’s like putting junior people into sales training on their inside sales team … oh wait!
  • I mean it’s like putting a temp on your front desk, so that anyone who comes into your offices is greeted by someone who knows nothing about your organization …

Read the whole of the 6th issue here.


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Learning
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Cognitive Elites

“A 'cognitive elite' will rise to power and influence, as a class of sovereign individuals 'commanding vastly greater resources' who will no longer be subject to the power of nation-states and will redesign governments to suit their ends.”

Read More In The Guardian Here

Cognitive Elites ... not the same as 'Elites' - and - be it a 'discredited' term or not - I have no doubt that those that seek to use technology to protect their interests - and not subjugate themselves to the Corporates will win out. They are thinking, acting, doing and rising above the media clutter. Who are those people? Well, maybe it is easier to point out who they are not .... they are not people;

  • who shake their heads and say 'what can we do'
  • who continue to blindly use Facebook, despite all the proof of what they have done and continue to do
  • who have a single password across all of their accounts
  • who have a password like 1234password
  • ... you get the picture

NO - it doesn’t include those people.

But it also is not about having superior intelligence. (Which is what the book was talking about.) No. That is not going to save you. And those people aren't the cognitive elites that I think about.

To me - I think you are a cognitive elite if you think. At all. Your IQ can be below 100 - like half the population - but that doesn’t mean you can't think ... that is a choice.

Start to think. Start to act. Be Different.

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Technology
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Digital Tech Is Transforming The Physical Shape Of Our Cities

"The digital revolution is changing how and where work happens. Employment is becoming more flexible and fluid, with digital technology enabling more people to work remotely and to collaborate in the cloud. This will impact city-centre offices, with landlords having to adjust to weaker demand and shorter leases. And as artificial intelligence bites – machines don’t care where they work – we’ll see the growth of cheaper regional back-offices, which is bad news for expensive cities."

Read All About It.